Since there are a glut of fundamental and technical indicators available – many of which conflict – which do you follow? In other words, how do you react when the employment rate is dropping, but stocks rise to new highs on increased earnings? Should you buy when stocks are well below historical price-to-earnings ratios despite high volume selling? For every report and survey suggesting one direction, there is usually a contradicting indicator that suggests the opposite.
Especially the cap-weighted S&P 500 is extremely concentrated and therefore tremendously flawed. Hence, holdings with higher market capitalizations have a greater impact on the value of the index than do companies with smaller market caps. For instance, the top 50 holdings of the index (10 %) account for approximately more than 50 % of its weight. Consequently, the price information causes a wrong perception of the real trend, especially in times when those heavy weighted stocks move in the opposite direction compared to the broad market. In such a situation, a major trend reversal is imminent and forces us to become a contrarian investor rather than being a trend follower. By analyzing the full holdings of the S&P 500 on an aggregate basis, this market inefficiency gives us the competitive edge to be ahead of the crowd!
Fundamentals: Stock and bond markets have fundamental data points that drive price action. Price/earnings ratios, interest rates, credit ratings and debt/equity ratios are some of the financial metrics traders use to price stocks and bonds. Commodities, on the other hand, have few if any such reliable metrics. Price action is usually driven by short-, intermediate- or long-term market sentiment. As a result, analyzing commodities markets is much more difficult.
AGRICULTURAL MARKETS OVERVIEW FOR MONDAY: (11/19) Cycles are mixed for the next few days with some bias toward lower action. Seasonal the market rallies before Thanksgiving and there is probably enough early winter weather to prevent any serious downward action. Weather should also support meats and they will be hard to sell now and holiday trade can get thin and we try not to trade much in the meat pits before the holidays. Any strong rallies on Mondays may quickly be taken back into Tuesday/Wednesday.
For example, the greatest loss for investors according to Dalbar data over the past 30 years came in October 2008. This was a volatile month; the S&P 500 started above 1,100 but at times closed in the 800s, representing a decline of 27% within a single month. Only the S&P 500 then rebounded somewhat and finished the month 14% off the lows. Clearly, October 2008 was a roller coaster of a month and relatively unusual in market history - we saw greater swings in October 2008 than are often seen over a whole year.
In our updates you will see an explanation of market action and probable future direction. We do updates usually several times a week. Our main newsletters come out by Monday morning and Thursday morning every week. Check the site frequently if you are not on mailing list. We usually do at least one Trade Diary update a week. We will show the technical reasons behind every trade, entry and exit.
The trading in the commodity market like NCDEX or MCX can be started with even. 5,000/-. But, if you’re going to invest capital and time in the commodity market, then I recommend starting with the 40,000/-. It will be sufficient amount for a beginning trader to start or study trading. And please don’t initiate trading with the borrowed money because the trading in the commodity market is subject of the investment with risk & without guarantee of profit.
But we can see that investors can be their own worst enemy - selling at the times of greatest panic, and potentially then missing out on subsequent gains. Basically, although you can look at a stock chart and imagine what you might do, your actual behavior may be quite different than you project due to the emotions of fear and greed. This can consume even the most well intentioned investor. Therefore, for many investors what appears to be rational market timing may actually be giving into the emotions of fear and greed, with unfortunate results. Of course, it is tempting to believe that you are a better investor than average, or at least better at keeping your emotions under control, but there is also substantial evidence that people are generally over confident about their own ability in many fields from driving safety to investing skill.
"In our perspective, this move will align with commodities market timings. However, we will have to wait for Exchanges to implement the same with prior approval of SEBI. Whether the extended timings will be for all securities or securities in equity derivatives market will trade only till the time underlying equities trade and only indexes will be allowed to trade for extended hours," he further said.
Production Output: Sophisticated traders examine the output of leading producers for clues about big economic cycles. For example, mining companies might close mines and reduce output when metals prices are depressed. However, these actions often indicate that a market bottom is forming. Using production output from leading producers as a contrary indicator can be a profitable trading strategy.
Corn: Corn is a commodity with several important applications in the global economy. It is a food source for humans and livestock as well as a feedstock used in the production of ethanol fuel. The high cost of sugar in the United States has made corn a key ingredient in sweetening products such as ketchup, soft drinks and candies. Growing food and fuel demand globally should drive continued interest in corn as a commodity.
The past decade has been unsettling for many investors. The recession of 2008–2009 made some investors so fearful, they stopped contributing to their accounts — or even withdrew their money at market lows, thus locking in the losses. They may have thought sitting out for a while seemed like a good strategy. But trying to avoid the worst drops means also missing the opportunity for gains (and frequently investors get out too late to avoid the worst of the decline). The chart below shows what would have happened to a hypothetical investment of $1,000 in the S&P 500 in the decade of 2008 through 2017 if an investor had missed the best days of that period.
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So the market may be less driven by predictable patterns than our brains may lead us to believe. The track record of investors actually timing the market has been poor, perhaps due to emotions clouding judgement, and some past events such as the October 1987 market crash appear extremely hard to forecast because the causes of them are unclear, or at least still debated, even decades after the event. Then there are structural factors against market timing too in terms of both taxes, direct costs and the opportunity cost of being out of a market that has historically risen in value over time. To say nothing of the cost of your time. All of this is not to say that timing is impossible, but the odds appear in favor of the buy and hold investor rather than the market timer. Generally, if you have money to invest for the long term, it seems putting it to work quickly beats waiting to try and find the perfect moment to enter the market.
Diwali is an auspicious day and stock market remains close on this day. As a Muhurat Trading Session (Mahurat Trading) BSE and NSE remain open for 60 minutes on Diwali evening. People do muhurat trades for the coming year. Its been happiness is flowing all over the stock market. People mainly do delivery trades on this day to have a good trading year ahead. As per Hindus Diwali is the festival on which they do Chopda Pujan and Muhurat Trading is done by them to give a good entry in the stock for the coming year. On Diwali Muhurat Trading Celebrities of India come to ring the bell in BSE and it becomes a tradition nowadays.