The key equity indices -- BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty -- have risen 3 to 8 per cent since Diwali Muhurat trading 2017. Today itself, Indian stock markets finished marginally higher ahead of Diwali Muhurat trading 2018 with BSE Sensex concluding at 34,991.91, up 40.99 points or 0.12% per cent and NSE Nifty ending at 10,530.00, up 6.00 or 0.06 per cent.
Fundamentals: Stock and bond markets have fundamental data points that drive price action. Price/earnings ratios, interest rates, credit ratings and debt/equity ratios are some of the financial metrics traders use to price stocks and bonds. Commodities, on the other hand, have few if any such reliable metrics. Price action is usually driven by short-, intermediate- or long-term market sentiment. As a result, analyzing commodities markets is much more difficult.
This measure has since become known as the “Buffett Ratio” (most charts use GDP instead of GNP, hence the different percentages from Buffett’s quote). One obvious issue with this ratio is that it compares companies with increasing international exposure to domestic economic activity. Another potential issue revolves around higher corporate profit margins. While profit margins fluctuate with the economic cycle, changes in industry composition and industry concentration could be elevating margins long-term.
It was out of a need to account for such volatility that the Revised FED Model was created. This model essentially adds projected earnings to the analysis. In other words, if stock market earnings are expected to rise over the next year, then the FED Model is dependable and investors can simply compare earnings yields between bonds and stocks. But if stock market earnings are predicted to decline, then this strategy is ineffective. By accounting for projected earnings, the Revised Fed Model creates a more reliable method of investing.
There is much debate on market efficiency i.e. how well and how fast the markets incorporate information about future profits. It is of note that on certain occasions the market can appear relatively random. One example is the October 1987 market crash (Black Monday) where the international stock markets, including the US, fell 20% or more in a single day. Subsequent analysis by Robert Shiller, the Nobel Prize winning economist, based on surveying investors suggested that the decline was due to investor psychology and did not have an obvious external cause. If true, this creates a substantial challenge for market timing because such ephemeral causes can be extremely hard to predict and forecast. It is one thing to forecast and predict something that is rational, but quite another to predict something that may, at times, hinge on the whims of human psychology.
Natural Gas: Natural gas is used in a variety of industrial, residential and commercial applications including electricity generation. It is considered a clean fossil fuel source and has garnered increasing demand from more countries and economic sectors. The United States and Russia have emerged as the leading producers of this important global commodity.
Rosecast.com is a highly ranked Market Timing Service (as rated by newsletter rating agency "Timer Digest" from Greenwich, CT) and follows a scientific approach to financial astrology. This is achieved by combining ancient wisdom (Four Elements of Nature) with modern astronomy (Snowwhite and Her Seven Dwarfs) and mathematics (advanced use of midpoints, harmonics and numerology). For this purpose various software programs have been created, our most advanced software "Moving Stars - Four Elements" is available via our Mentoring Program that teaches scientific financial astrology to professional traders and investors.
Nonetheless, if there are real patterns to be found whether by looking at charts or other analysis, let’s look at how good investors actually are at finding them and timing the market. Dalbar, a financial market research firm, examine returns investors received relative to the market. They find over the past 20 years, investors in equity funds have lagged the S&P 500 benchmark by an average of 4.66% per year, on average. Part of this outcome is due to poor timing decisions according to Dalbar's analysis.
Closing times for stock market exchanges vary, but they generally close in the evening – except on holidays. A stock market exchange is a marketplace where stocks are traded throughout the day; it functions as an entity that ensures orderly trading and efficient dissemination of price quotes for stocks on the exchange. Some of the main stock market exchanges are the Shanghai Stock Exchange, Swiss Exchange, London Stock Exchange, New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq. Trading is generally conducted on Monday to Friday of each week.
While back-testing such techniques reveals profitable results, it is not a slam-dunk for future outcomes. Like any system, it takes a disciplined investor to follow the system and not be swayed by their own emotions when the data is not in agreement. Even for proven market timing strategies, there will always be investor error to consider, since computer-based models don’t take this into account. Moreover, the economy and market are ever-changing and may introduce new variables or alter old assumptions which can further complicate these strategies or affect their results.
Mr. Bear however, has been assigned a totally different mission. When it’s his turn he has been tasked to use those very same investors to power the trend to un-dreamed of lows. This is a mission even more difficult than Mr. Bull’s because counter to Mr. Bull it’s Mr. Bear’s duty to actually keep those investors in the market despite it falling over time, which is no easy task. This is because if these investors just gave up and left the market it would simply stop going down. His mission requires a particularly high level of deviance to pull off. It’s why Mr. Market retains a particularly fond place in his heart for Mr. Bear, since Mr. Market has a diabolical nature and like the Grand Inquisitor, he has no problem drawing blood.
The moving average is a line that plots the average price of a stock over a set period of time. A basic trading method is to buy when share prices rise above the long-term moving average and sell when the price falls below. In the paper, Technical Analysis with a Long Term Perspective: Trading Strategies and Market Timing Ability, some uncommon approaches were evaluated. One strategy was to analyze the trailing four years of market data to determine which moving average length proved the most effective for making investment decisions. Contrary to the usual calculation of moving averages using periods as short as 50 or 200 days, the moving averages in this paper were calculated over much longer periods of time.
For example, the greatest loss for investors according to Dalbar data over the past 30 years came in October 2008. This was a volatile month; the S&P 500 started above 1,100 but at times closed in the 800s, representing a decline of 27% within a single month. Only the S&P 500 then rebounded somewhat and finished the month 14% off the lows. Clearly, October 2008 was a roller coaster of a month and relatively unusual in market history - we saw greater swings in October 2008 than are often seen over a whole year.
These extended hours may be helpful for someone looking to make a move when big news breaks on a company outside of market hours. After all, news doesn't always break at the most opportune time. But aspiring investors should still approach premarket and aftermarket hours with great caution. There are significantly fewer people trading during these extended hours, which can often mean greater volatility in stock price.
For starters, you'll definitely need to know the standard trading hours on U.S. stock exchanges like the Nasdaq or the New York Stock Exchange. But what if you're investing in something available elsewhere, based in another country? When are the markets from that country open? And what if you're looking to do some additional trading before or after? Can you do it, and should you?
Coffee: The global coffee industry is enormous. In the United States alone, it accounts for more than 1.6% of GDP and an estimated 1.7 million jobs. As a commodity, coffee is intriguing for at least two reasons. The overwhelming supply of the commodity derives from just five countries. At the same time, global demand for coffee continues to grow as emerging market economies develop a taste for the beverage.
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