Especially the cap-weighted S&P 500 is extremely concentrated and therefore tremendously flawed. Hence, holdings with higher market capitalizations have a greater impact on the value of the index than do companies with smaller market caps. For instance, the top 50 holdings of the index (10 %) account for approximately more than 50 % of its weight. Consequently, the price information causes a wrong perception of the real trend, especially in times when those heavy weighted stocks move in the opposite direction compared to the broad market. In such a situation, a major trend reversal is imminent and forces us to become a contrarian investor rather than being a trend follower. By analyzing the full holdings of the S&P 500 on an aggregate basis, this market inefficiency gives us the competitive edge to be ahead of the crowd!
The past decade has been unsettling for many investors. The recession of 2008–2009 made some investors so fearful, they stopped contributing to their accounts — or even withdrew their money at market lows, thus locking in the losses. They may have thought sitting out for a while seemed like a good strategy. But trying to avoid the worst drops means also missing the opportunity for gains (and frequently investors get out too late to avoid the worst of the decline). The chart below shows what would have happened to a hypothetical investment of $1,000 in the S&P 500 in the decade of 2008 through 2017 if an investor had missed the best days of that period.
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The backdrop to this misery is President Mauricio Macri’s weak reform program combined with the IMF’s misdiagnosis of Argentina’s problems. Mr. Macri replaced the left-wing populist Cristina Fernández de Kirchner in December 2015. He inherited a rapidly growing public sector, huge fiscal deficits due to massive subsidies for key products, annual inflation of more than 30%, capital controls, and a dual exchange-rate system. With a slim majority in the National Congress, and facing midterm elections in October 2017, Mr. Macri adopted a gradualist approach to reform.
WallStreetCourier.com is specialized in exploiting traceable inefficiencies in the U.S. stock market. We offer precise trading recommendations based on proven and measurable facts. Each of those recommendations is highly uncorrelated to each other and can be therefore used to build a highly diversified and efficient portfolio. Success, Guidance and Sustainability through cutting-edge research. ... more»
Stock Market Timing,Volume 2 analyzes and gives weighted values (scores) to each long-term planetary cycle, its phases (aspects), and their correlation to 50-week or greater cycles in the U.S. stock market -- going all the way back to the beginning in 1789! Which planetary cycles correlate with the 18-year and greater stock market cycles (and hence trends)? Which correlate more with the four-year cycles? Which correlate with long-term cycle crests, and which to long-term cycle troughs? And what is the correlation to the three long-term Saturn Planetary pair cycles that just started June 25, 1998 and last through May, 2000?
As the world’s reserve currency, the dollar can often dictate the direction of commodity prices. When the value of the dollar drops against other currencies, it takes more dollars to purchase commodities than it does when the price is high. Put another way, sellers of commodities get fewer dollars for their product when the dollar is strong and more dollars when the currency is weak. Factors such as weak employment or GDP numbers in the United States can weaken the dollar and lead to higher commodity prices, while strong economic numbers can weaken commodity prices.
As other reviewers have already outlined in the comments below, this book tells you which five statistics to pay attention to (direction of interest rates, direction of defaults, direction of foreclosures, direction of builder sentiment, etc.). You can track this information in a spreadsheet yourself, but it would be very cumbersome to do this. The author (correctly) assumes that it would be much easier for most of us to have someone else track these numbers each month, and sell us the refined data. And that's where his timing newsletter comes in. His newsletter costs about $135 a year, which sounds like a lot, but even if you have to fork out that amount for 5 years, that's peanuts compared to the losses you would incur by buying the average home (or an investment property) at the wrong time, like back in 2007, when the CA housing market had just started its 50% crash. You could have easily lost $300K by getting in too early, or getting out too late. And the information isn't clinically precise (and I think Campbell himself says it's only correct 80% of the time, which means it's wrong the other 20%, which would suck if you acted on the buy/sell signals during the times it was wrong.) But still, 80% accuracy is a good batting average.
Should you need even more proof that you don't need to dive in and out of the stock market every time some new concern emerges, take a look at the historic performance of the S&P 500 since 1950. Despite undergoing 36 stock market corrections over that time -- i.e., at least a 10% loss from a recent high, when rounded -- all but one correction (the current one) has been completely erased by bull market rallies, according to data from Yardeni Research. Erasing stock market declines often happens within a matter of weeks or months, leaving those skeptics who ran to the sidelines eating the markets' dust more times than not.
Production Output: Sophisticated traders examine the output of leading producers for clues about big economic cycles. For example, mining companies might close mines and reduce output when metals prices are depressed. However, these actions often indicate that a market bottom is forming. Using production output from leading producers as a contrary indicator can be a profitable trading strategy.
Ed Yardeni, who was the Chief Investment Strategist for Oak Associates as well as a professor and an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank, developed the FED model. This model compares bond rates to equity premiums. For example, if the 10-year Treasury note has a higher earnings yield than the stock market (as calculated based on the trailing 12 months), you should buy bonds. If, on the other hand, the earnings yield of the market is above that of bonds, you should buy equities.
And therefore we support you in this endeavor by providing a variety of non-correlated investment strategies that can be combined to a highly diversified and strong performing portfolio! Our ETF Model Portfolios can be therefore used as a guide for members looking for a hands-off approach as we determine the precise weightings of each asset class. Furthermore each ETF Model Portfolio has its own Factsheet, where we publish a detailed risk and performance report!
Two hallmarks characterize capitalist economies. Firstly, property is predominately in private hands. Consequently, goods and services are allocated via market mechanisms in which prices provide signals for businesses, workers, and consumers. Secondly, capitalist economies are highly capitalized. Indeed, the stocks of physical and human capital are relatively large in relation to the capitalist economies’ income flows.
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Certainly, there are strong opinions on the efficacy of timing methods, perhaps driven by their promise of great rewards. While some assert that timing the market is possible and highly profitable, others claim that market timing is either impossible or not worth the risk. Nonetheless, it remains to be seen which of these market timing strategies will stand the test of time, if any, and what new ones will be developed. Much research and testing still needs to be done to legitimize market timing theories among academics and investors alike.
As more farmers began delivering their grains to the warehouses in Chicago, buyers and sellers realized that customized forward contracts were cumbersome and inefficient. Furthermore, they subjected the buyer to the risk of default by the seller. A group of brokers streamlined the process by creating standardized contracts that were identical in terms of the (a) quantity and quality of the asset being delivered, (b) the delivery time and (c) the terms of the delivery. They also created a centralized clearinghouse to act as the counterparty to both parties in the transaction. This eliminated the risk of default that was present with forward contracts. In 1848, they established the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) to trade these contracts, which became known as futures contracts.
Mr. Bear however, has been assigned a totally different mission. When it’s his turn he has been tasked to use those very same investors to power the trend to un-dreamed of lows. This is a mission even more difficult than Mr. Bull’s because counter to Mr. Bull it’s Mr. Bear’s duty to actually keep those investors in the market despite it falling over time, which is no easy task. This is because if these investors just gave up and left the market it would simply stop going down. His mission requires a particularly high level of deviance to pull off. It’s why Mr. Market retains a particularly fond place in his heart for Mr. Bear, since Mr. Market has a diabolical nature and like the Grand Inquisitor, he has no problem drawing blood.
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