FINANCIAL MARKETS OVERVIEW FOR MONDAY: (11/19) The week before Thanksgiving is usually frustrating for traders. By late Monday, traders are disappearing and markets stay in useless ranges with pattern waiting to be completed. Dips on stocks will be bought for a Thanksgiving rally only to give it back early next week. Metals and crude look higher this week even if we have a Monday/Tuesday pullback here. T-notes could hold up an extra week but minimum target is close.
"Professor Zakamulin has written a much-needed comprehensive guide to market timing rules using eight types of moving averages, as well as related methods like MACD and the momentum rule. His thorough analysis applied to stock indices, bonds,currencies, and commodities clearly shows that trend following offers advantages after trading costs. It can protect one from loses when needed most and is a prudent investment strategy for medium and long-term investors. This is a landmark book that should help improve both academic and practitioner perception regarding the efficacy of trend following methods."
Technical Analysis: This strategy uses historical prices and charts to analyze trends. Technical analysis traders believe historical price trends have predictive ability for prices in the future. They look for price points in the past where significant buying or selling occurred. They then place orders to trigger positions once those price levels occur again. Pure technical analysis traders pay no attention to fundamental economic factors in their trading.
The primary reason behind this is the watershed change in global central banks’ monetary policies. For years central banks had been keeping rates near 0%, or below, and at the same time printing over a hundred billion dollars’ worth of fiat currencies each and every month to purchase bonds and stocks. That is all changing now. According to Capital Economics, fourteen major global central banks are either in the process right now, or have indicated that they be will next year, in the process of raising interest rates. At the same time, QE on a global net basis will plunge from $180 billion per month at its peak during 2017, to $0 by December…and will then go negative in 2019.
MCX trading timings will be revised from today (12/3/2018) on account of change in US daylight saving timings. 10.00 AM to 11.30 PM for all Non-agri commodities. 10.00 AM to 9.00 PM for Internationally linked agri commodities (CPO, Cotton, Kapas) 10.00 AM to 5.00 PM for other agri commodities. From today (12/3/2018) all MCX Intraday positions will be squared off before 25 minutes of market close (i.e. 11.05 PM)
“Over 75% of U.S. industries have registered an increase in concentration levels over the last two decades. Firms in industries with the largest increases in product market concentration have realized higher profit margins, positive abnormal stock returns, and more profitable M&A deals, which suggest that market power is becoming an important source of value.”
Population growth will also stoke demand for energy commodities. As people in the developing world migrate from rural areas into cities, demand for energy will rise. Nearly 1.3 billion people in the world have no access to electricity, including about one-quarter of the population of India. Urbanization and economic growth will also create new demand for fossil fuels to power cars, homes and businesses.
Brent crude oil jumps back over $60 after 'Black Friday' plungeGold prices flat amid stronger dollar, investors look to G20 summitAs oil plunges, the real Opec meeting will be at next week's G20Gold drops Rs 200 on lacklustre demand; silver falls Rs 500Gold declines on weak global cues, low demandOil's Black Friday drop could hit drilling budgets for 2019
Sugar: Sugar is not only a sweetener, but it also plays an important role in the production of ethanol fuel. Historically, governments across the world have intervened heavily in the sugar market. Subsidies and tariffs on imports often produce anomalies in prices and make sugar an interesting commodity to trade. Although sugar cane is grown all over the world, the ten largest producing countries account for about three-quarters of all production.
Earlier last year, Diwali Muhurat trading was conducted on 18 October 2017. A volatile trading session was seen in the stock markets with BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty closing in negative territory. The benchmark Sensex closed at 32,389.96, down 194.39 points or 0.6 per cent whereas the broader share indicator Nifty settled 64.3 points or 0.63 per cent lower at 10,146.55.
Fundamental Analysis: This strategy makes trades based on the underlying economic factors that determine the value of an asset. Traders that use fundamental analysis need to develop a keen understanding of the factors that influence the supply and demand picture for a particular commodity. Supply and demand are opposing forces. Rising demand positively impacts prices, while rising supply negatively impacts prices
The recent upswing in NG prices has been an incredible trade for many, yet we believe a top is now forming in Natural Gas that could catch many traders by surprise.  The recent upside gap in price and upward price volatility would normally not concern long traders.  They would likely view this as a tremendous success for their long NG positions, yet we believe this move is about to come to a dramatic end – fairly quickly.
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"Professor Zakamulin has written a much-needed comprehensive guide to market timing rules using eight types of moving averages, as well as related methods like MACD and the momentum rule. His thorough analysis applied to stock indices, bonds,currencies, and commodities clearly shows that trend following offers advantages after trading costs. It can protect one from loses when needed most and is a prudent investment strategy for medium and long-term investors. This is a landmark book that should help improve both academic and practitioner perception regarding the efficacy of trend following methods."
Stock market ups and downs may be part of the investing cycle, but they can put investors to the test. To help stay the course in volatile markets, Columbia Management offers the following illustrations based on fundamental investing principles. While no strategy can assure a profit or protect against loss, it's been shown time and again that time, not timing, matters most when building wealth for the long term.
Intermediate-level fundamental traders may want to delve deeper into the end markets for particular commodities. For example, strength or weakness in the commercial real estate markets in large metropolitan areas can offer clues about demand for steel and other industrial metals. Similarly, the Cattle on Feed Report released by the USDA shows the future supply of cattle coming on to the market and can offer clues about future beef prices. Once traders become familiar with interpreting the significance of these data points, they can use them to make trading decisions.
Nonetheless, if there are real patterns to be found whether by looking at charts or other analysis, let’s look at how good investors actually are at finding them and timing the market. Dalbar, a financial market research firm, examine returns investors received relative to the market. They find over the past 20 years, investors in equity funds have lagged the S&P 500 benchmark by an average of 4.66% per year, on average. Part of this outcome is due to poor timing decisions according to Dalbar's analysis.
A few of these holidays also lead to early closes on additional days. For example, on the Friday after Thanksgiving Day, the stock market closes after 1:00 p.m. ET. If Christmas Eve or the day before Independence Day fall on a weekday, those days are also subject to early closes, with the market again closing at 1:00 p.m. If Independence Day is a Saturday, then Friday, July 3, is still recognized as a holiday and the exchanges are closed.
While back-testing such techniques reveals profitable results, it is not a slam-dunk for future outcomes. Like any system, it takes a disciplined investor to follow the system and not be swayed by their own emotions when the data is not in agreement. Even for proven market timing strategies, there will always be investor error to consider, since computer-based models don’t take this into account. Moreover, the economy and market are ever-changing and may introduce new variables or alter old assumptions which can further complicate these strategies or affect their results.
Further, the Indian stock market also opens a special trading session during Diwali, the festival of light. This is known as ‘Mahurat Trading’. Its trading time is declared a few days before Diwali. However, generally, Mahurat Trading timing is in the evening. You can find more details about mahurat trading here: 60-minute ‘Muhurat Trading’ on BSE, NSE this Diwali  
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