AGRICULTURAL MARKETS OVERVIEW FOR MONDAY: (11/19) Cycles are mixed for the next few days with some bias toward lower action. Seasonal the market rallies before Thanksgiving and there is probably enough early winter weather to prevent any serious downward action. Weather should also support meats and they will be hard to sell now and holiday trade can get thin and we try not to trade much in the meat pits before the holidays. Any strong rallies on Mondays may quickly be taken back into Tuesday/Wednesday.  
Today, nobody argues that the stock market should yield more than the bond market. But other indicators are being used as rules of thumb to judge whether the market may be at an extreme. Typically, these charts show a compelling and simple relationship that appears to identify cyclical market peaks and bottoms. I will touch on a few of the charts I encounter on a regular basis. My point is not to argue whether the U.S. stock market today is expensive or not, but merely to point out flaws in these indicators that suggest an easy answer.
The chart below shows two hypothetical investments in the S&P 500 over the 20-year period ending December 31, 2017. Each investor contributed $10,000 every year. One investor somehow managed to pick the very best day (the market low) of each year to invest. The average annual return on that investment would have been 9.95%. The other investor was not so lucky and actually picked the worst day (market high) each year. Even with the worst investment timing, the average annual return would have been 7.76%. At the end of 20 years, the cumulative investment of $200,000 had a value of $456,462.
Stock market timings in India are something which every trader and investor should know. In fact, if anyone who deals in the stock trading or its related field must know everything about share market timing . The Indian stock market comprises of two exchanges: National Stock Exchange (NSE) and Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE). However, the timings of both the exchange are similar.

Our entire short-term oriented indicators clearly turned bearish last week. From a pure price point of view, we can see that the S&P 500 closed 61 points below the bearish threshold from the Trend Trader Index. In this context, the S&P 500 is extremely far away from getting back into a short-term oriented uptrend. Furthermore, both envelope lines of this reliable indicator are still decreasing on a quite fast pace, which is another typical technical pattern for a strong short-term oriented down-trend. But the case is slightly different if we focus on the Modified MACD. Despite the fact that this indicator flashed a bearish ....
What's causing these swift declines in the major indexes? In part, some of the blame lies with concerns over a looming trade war. Recently announced tariffs on steel and aluminum are designed to directly hit China, which generates a substantial annual trade surplus from the United States. Wall Street and investors clearly fear the possibility of retaliatory tariffs, and thus slower global growth.
China demand, the China and India “love trade”, cyclical inflation driving up the prices of commodities and resources and the classic… economic growth in the US will create cost-push inflation through wage increases with the smart money seeking inflation protection in gold. All of those and a veritable Turducken of mishmashed ingredients were served to gold bugs as a decidedly not delectable appetizer before the main course.
Have you heard about the Everything Bubble? Some analysts believe that after the dot-com bubble of the 1990s and the housing bubble of the 2000s, we are in the middle of a price bubble in virtually all asset classes simultaneously caused by the Fed’s unusually easy monetary policy with ultra low interest rates. Although we agree that the US central bank maintained federal funds rate too low for too long, the narrative about a dangerous bubble inflating in a wide variety of countries, industries, and assets does not make sense. The bubble means that the price of an asset deviates from the fundamental value, increasing excessively, to a much greater extent than on other markets. It should be now clear that the existence of overvalued assets necessarily means that other assets are undervalued, so there can’t be the ‘everything bubble’. Sorry, but those who wait for the total asset apocalypse might be disappointed.
If you miss even a small handful of these major moves higher, you can kiss a good portion of your long-term return goodbye. According to J.P. Morgan Asset Management's report, for the 20-year period between Jan. 3, 1995 and Dec. 31, 2014 (including both the dot-com bubble and Great Recession) the S&P 500 returned 555% (9.9% annualized) for those investors who held on and never sold. If you missed just the 10 best days in terms of percentage gains over this more than 5,000-day period, your return was more than halved to 191%. 
Following two years without so much as a whisper of volatility, the iconic Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES:^DJI) and broad-based S&P 500 (SNPINDEX:^GSPC) are seemingly doing their best to keep investors on the edge of their seats. In February, the CBOE Volatility Index briefly hit a nine-year high following three grim single-day performances over a span of six days that saw the Dow lose 666 points, 1,033 points, and 1,175 points, its biggest single-day decline in history.

Prices of Crude Oil has an effect on our markets specially on stocks of OIL companies , Paint companies and Aviation Companies since they import majority of the crude oil. Also India imports 80% of its crude oil . This makes up 30–50% of our import bill. SO if OPEC nations such as Nigeria , Saudi , Russia or US cut their production so that crude oil barrel prices spike , it will have a negative effect on India’s stock markets.
We don’t have a central bank meeting scheduled for this week, but we get the minutes of the latest ECB one. Following the upbeat remarks of President Draghi at the conference following that meeting, it will be interesting to see whether other ECB officials are on the same page. In the US, we have the CPIs for September. We get inflation data from Norway and Sweden as well.
What separates commodities from other types of goods is that they are standardized and interchangeable with other goods of the same type. These features make commodities fungible. This means that two equivalent units of the same commodity should have mostly uniform prices any place in the world (* excluding local factors such as the cost of transportation and taxes).

The moving average is a line that plots the average price of a stock over a set period of time. A basic trading method is to buy when share prices rise above the long-term moving average and sell when the price falls below. In the paper, Technical Analysis with a Long Term Perspective: Trading Strategies and Market Timing Ability, some uncommon approaches were evaluated. One strategy was to analyze the trailing four years of market data to determine which moving average length proved the most effective for making investment decisions. Contrary to the usual calculation of moving averages using periods as short as 50 or 200 days, the moving averages in this paper were calculated over much longer periods of time.


AGRICULTURAL MARKETS OVERVIEW FOR MONDAY: (11/19) Cycles are mixed for the next few days with some bias toward lower action. Seasonal the market rallies before Thanksgiving and there is probably enough early winter weather to prevent any serious downward action. Weather should also support meats and they will be hard to sell now and holiday trade can get thin and we try not to trade much in the meat pits before the holidays. Any strong rallies on Mondays may quickly be taken back into Tuesday/Wednesday.  

Shepwave.com specializes in trading QQQ,DIA as well as QQQ options and DIA options. We give QQQ analysis and DIA analysis in our Trade Diary Updates. The QQQ and DIA are ETFs for the Nasdaq 100 and Dow Industrials indexes. We give analysis for the Nasdaq 100 index as well as the QQQ. We trade the QQQ. ShepWave gives analysis for the Dow Industrials index. We trade the DIA ETF for the index. ShepWave gives trading analysis for the S&P 500 index. We do not trade the index but give analysis for those that do. ShepWave.com also trades Options for the QQQ and DIA ETFs. We show exact option entry, side we are on and strike price as well as expiration month of the option contracts we purchase.


The WSC All Weather Portfolio is based on the Maximum Diversification approach as it is balancing its underlying asset classes to minimize the overall portfolio volatility and to maximize its underlying diversification potential. It is designed to perform reasonable well during all predominant market conditions and should be regarded as a core investment.
COMEX is a comprehensive commodity derivatives exchange. It began its operations in the month of November 2003. Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) regulates the functioning of MCX, which facilitates trading commodity derivative contracts across a huge range of industry lines. MCX has its presence in more than 1,200 cities in India and has a network of 669 listed members and 51,575 certified individuals. The exchange is aimed at fostering societies, which are extremely important for the further advancement of its operations.
Retail inflation, released after market hours on Wednesday, fell below the Reserve Bank of India’s medium-term target in August, increasing the likelihood it will keep interest rates on hold in October after raising them at its past two meetings. Consumer prices rose 3.69% from a year earlier, down from July’s 4.17%, the Statistics Ministry said on Wednesday. August was the first month in 10 in which retail inflation was below the Reserve Bank of India’s medium-term target of 4%.
As the world’s reserve currency, the dollar can often dictate the direction of commodity prices. When the value of the dollar drops against other currencies, it takes more dollars to purchase commodities than it does when the price is high. Put another way, sellers of commodities get fewer dollars for their product when the dollar is strong and more dollars when the currency is weak. Factors such as weak employment or GDP numbers in the United States can weaken the dollar and lead to higher commodity prices, while strong economic numbers can weaken commodity prices.
Further, the Indian stock market also opens a special trading session during Diwali, the festival of light. This is known as ‘Mahurat Trading’. Its trading time is declared a few days before Diwali. However, generally, Mahurat Trading timing is in the evening. You can find more details about mahurat trading here: 60-minute ‘Muhurat Trading’ on BSE, NSE this Diwali  
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