And the longer the time frame — through highs and lows — the greater the chances of a positive outcome. Indeed, over the past 90 years, through December 31, 2017, 94% of 10-year periods have been positive ones. Investors who have stayed in the market through occasional (and inevitable) periods of declining stock prices historically have been rewarded for their long-term outlook.
It was out of a need to account for such volatility that the Revised FED Model was created. This model essentially adds projected earnings to the analysis. In other words, if stock market earnings are expected to rise over the next year, then the FED Model is dependable and investors can simply compare earnings yields between bonds and stocks. But if stock market earnings are predicted to decline, then this strategy is ineffective. By accounting for projected earnings, the Revised Fed Model creates a more reliable method of investing.
Should you need even more proof that you don't need to dive in and out of the stock market every time some new concern emerges, take a look at the historic performance of the S&P 500 since 1950. Despite undergoing 36 stock market corrections over that time -- i.e., at least a 10% loss from a recent high, when rounded -- all but one correction (the current one) has been completely erased by bull market rallies, according to data from Yardeni Research. Erasing stock market declines often happens within a matter of weeks or months, leaving those skeptics who ran to the sidelines eating the markets' dust more times than not.
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On Tuesday, during the Asian morning, we get Australia’s NAB business survey for September. Although this is usually not a market mover, given the RBA’s emphasis on wage growth, we will take a close look at the Labour Costs sub-index. At its last two meetings, the Bank reiterated that wage growth remains low, but removed the part saying that this is likely to continue. Instead, officials noted that it has picked up a little and that further lift is expected. The NAB Labour Costs index accelerated to +1.3% qoq in the three months to August, from 0.9% in the three months to July and it would be interesting to see whether this improvement will continue as the RBA has suggested.
Today, nobody argues that the stock market should yield more than the bond market. But other indicators are being used as rules of thumb to judge whether the market may be at an extreme. Typically, these charts show a compelling and simple relationship that appears to identify cyclical market peaks and bottoms. I will touch on a few of the charts I encounter on a regular basis. My point is not to argue whether the U.S. stock market today is expensive or not, but merely to point out flaws in these indicators that suggest an easy answer.
Two hallmarks characterize capitalist economies. Firstly, property is predominately in private hands. Consequently, goods and services are allocated via market mechanisms in which prices provide signals for businesses, workers, and consumers. Secondly, capitalist economies are highly capitalized. Indeed, the stocks of physical and human capital are relatively large in relation to the capitalist economies’ income flows.
The key equity indices -- BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty -- have risen 3 to 8 per cent since Diwali Muhurat trading 2017. Today itself, Indian stock markets finished marginally higher ahead of Diwali Muhurat trading 2018 with BSE Sensex concluding at 34,991.91, up 40.99 points or 0.12% per cent and NSE Nifty ending at 10,530.00, up 6.00 or 0.06 per cent.
People rolled their eyes when I told them I was following a newsletter to try to time the real estate market. I think my attempts to evangelize the logic of Campbell's timing system fell on deaf ears. But the proof was in the pudding, and I think that last housing boom-bust cycle (rising through 2006, then falling for about 4 years, and then rising for most of the last 5 years) made believers out of many of the skeptics.
The BSE, NSE, forex and money market remain closed today on account of Ganesh Chaturthi. Indian shares ended higher on Wednesday, snapping two sessions of declines. The rupee recovered sharply following reports that Prime Minister Narendra Modi will review economic situation over the weekend and that a rate hike is not ruled out. Rupee rebounded to 71.90 against the US dollar, from a record low of 72.92 hit earlier in the session. The broader NSE Nifty closed 0.73% firmer at 11,369.90 while the benchmark BSE Sensex ended 0.81% higher at 37,717.96.
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