AGRICULTURAL MARKETS OVERVIEW FOR MONDAY: (11/19) Cycles are mixed for the next few days with some bias toward lower action. Seasonal the market rallies before Thanksgiving and there is probably enough early winter weather to prevent any serious downward action. Weather should also support meats and they will be hard to sell now and holiday trade can get thin and we try not to trade much in the meat pits before the holidays. Any strong rallies on Mondays may quickly be taken back into Tuesday/Wednesday.  
The main vision of WSC is to provide high quality market research and rule-based ETF model portfolios, as well as powerful and well proven technical market indicators & tools for individuals, hedge funds, and institutional investors with different risk profiles. Therefore our blog is dedicated to verify the latest developments/theories in finance by applying an unbiased an objective approach. Furthermore we want to share with you some interesting thoughts and we even will go back to the basics once in a while as we are reviewing some key points all investors should know.
The first stock exchange formed in Belgium around 1531, and by the early 1600s, the Dutch, British and French governments began chartering companies to invest in voyages to the East Indies and Asia. The goal of these trips was to bring back spices, silk and other treasures. However, the sailors faced risks including Barbary pirates, bad weather and poor navigation. To diversify their risks, traders would bet on several voyages at the same time. A separate limited liability company financed each voyage, and together they formed the first commodity company investments.
Jump up ^ From 13 November 2017, there will be a mid-day trading break from 1200h to 1300h, during which orders will not be matched. Therefore, continuous trading will be divided into two sessions: a morning session from 0900h to 1200h and an afternoon session from 1300h to 1700h. http://www.sgx.com/wps/portal/sgxweb/home/trading/securities/trading_hours_calendar
Have you heard about the Everything Bubble? Some analysts believe that after the dot-com bubble of the 1990s and the housing bubble of the 2000s, we are in the middle of a price bubble in virtually all asset classes simultaneously caused by the Fed’s unusually easy monetary policy with ultra low interest rates. Although we agree that the US central bank maintained federal funds rate too low for too long, the narrative about a dangerous bubble inflating in a wide variety of countries, industries, and assets does not make sense. The bubble means that the price of an asset deviates from the fundamental value, increasing excessively, to a much greater extent than on other markets. It should be now clear that the existence of overvalued assets necessarily means that other assets are undervalued, so there can’t be the ‘everything bubble’. Sorry, but those who wait for the total asset apocalypse might be disappointed.

“In case, stock exchanges are desirous of extending the trade timings beyond the extant trading hours, prior approval from SEBI shall be sought along with a detailed proposal including the framework for risk management, settlement process, monitoring of positions, availability of manpower, system capability, surveillance systems, etc,” SEBI said further.
Precious metals expert Michael Ballanger discusses the recent rise in precious metals prices and what he sees ahead for the metals. As many of us have grown to appreciate over the years, forecasts tend to be nothing more than "educated guesses" and no matter what methods one uses, predicting directional and amplitudinal movements in economics or finance or asset prices is analogous to standing in the paddock at Woodbine racetrack with a copy of the racing forum and a cup of black coffee, trying to determine whether Stormy's Revenge or Gluewagon is going to take the fifth in the mud. I spend literally hours upon hours drawing lines on charts and reading other people's forecasts in a desperate attempt to handicap the next $50 move in gold and I must confess that even without the nausea brought about by countless interventions and manipulations, it is an extremely difficult exercise.
And the longer the time frame — through highs and lows — the greater the chances of a positive outcome. Indeed, over the past 90 years, through December 31, 2017, 94% of 10-year periods have been positive ones. Investors who have stayed in the market through occasional (and inevitable) periods of declining stock prices historically have been rewarded for their long-term outlook.
Certainly, there are strong opinions on the efficacy of timing methods, perhaps driven by their promise of great rewards. While some assert that timing the market is possible and highly profitable, others claim that market timing is either impossible or not worth the risk. Nonetheless, it remains to be seen which of these market timing strategies will stand the test of time, if any, and what new ones will be developed. Much research and testing still needs to be done to legitimize market timing theories among academics and investors alike.
"Professor Zakamulin has written a much-needed comprehensive guide to market timing rules using eight types of moving averages, as well as related methods like MACD and the momentum rule. His thorough analysis applied to stock indices, bonds,currencies, and commodities clearly shows that trend following offers advantages after trading costs. It can protect one from loses when needed most and is a prudent investment strategy for medium and long-term investors. This is a landmark book that should help improve both academic and practitioner perception regarding the efficacy of trend following methods."
Have you heard about the Everything Bubble? Some analysts believe that after the dot-com bubble of the 1990s and the housing bubble of the 2000s, we are in the middle of a price bubble in virtually all asset classes simultaneously caused by the Fed’s unusually easy monetary policy with ultra low interest rates. Although we agree that the US central bank maintained federal funds rate too low for too long, the narrative about a dangerous bubble inflating in a wide variety of countries, industries, and assets does not make sense. The bubble means that the price of an asset deviates from the fundamental value, increasing excessively, to a much greater extent than on other markets. It should be now clear that the existence of overvalued assets necessarily means that other assets are undervalued, so there can’t be the ‘everything bubble’. Sorry, but those who wait for the total asset apocalypse might be disappointed.
Intermediate-level fundamental traders may want to delve deeper into the end markets for particular commodities. For example, strength or weakness in the commercial real estate markets in large metropolitan areas can offer clues about demand for steel and other industrial metals. Similarly, the Cattle on Feed Report released by the USDA shows the future supply of cattle coming on to the market and can offer clues about future beef prices. Once traders become familiar with interpreting the significance of these data points, they can use them to make trading decisions.
Prices of Crude Oil has an effect on our markets specially on stocks of OIL companies , Paint companies and Aviation Companies since they import majority of the crude oil. Also India imports 80% of its crude oil . This makes up 30–50% of our import bill. SO if OPEC nations such as Nigeria , Saudi , Russia or US cut their production so that crude oil barrel prices spike , it will have a negative effect on India’s stock markets.
Production Output: Sophisticated traders examine the output of leading producers for clues about big economic cycles. For example, mining companies might close mines and reduce output when metals prices are depressed. However, these actions often indicate that a market bottom is forming. Using production output from leading producers as a contrary indicator can be a profitable trading strategy.
The consumer price index climbed 0.3 percent last month, after rising 0.1 percent in September, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. It was the biggest rise since January, and it was mainly caused by an impressive surge in the fuel oil (+3.7 percent) and gasoline indices (+3 percent). However, the core CPI, which excludes food and energy, also rose, advancing 0.2 percent in October, following a 0.1-percent increase in September.
Another common tactic during periods of market volatility and uncertainty is to park long-term assets in cash investments. While waiting on the sidelines can sometimes seem the prudent strategy, it comes at a cost. CDs and money market accounts may be less volatile than stocks and bonds, but they also offer little opportunity for growth and income.
Fast-forward to June 2018. Janette’s 41 years of perfect timing earned an average annual return of 11.4 percent for a cool $8.2 million. No-timing Jackpot was close behind, with an 11.1 percent return and $7.8 million – still great. Even terrible-timing Jebediah got a 10.8 percent return – turning his $410,000 in contributions into $6.7 million. Sure, it's rewarding enough, but lagging little brother, no-timing Jackpot by $1.1 million is a high price to pay for bad timing.
And therefore we support you in this endeavor by providing a variety of non-correlated investment strategies that can be combined to a highly diversified and strong performing portfolio! Our ETF Model Portfolios can be therefore used as a guide for members looking for a hands-off approach as we determine the precise weightings of each asset class. Furthermore each ETF Model Portfolio has its own Factsheet, where we publish a detailed risk and performance report!
Your access to The Wall Street Journal online is subject to you not being an existing user of The Wall Street Journal online. Existing users include current or past Premium Users of The Wall Street Journal online. If you happen to be one, your subscription will be valid for Business Standard Digital only without any change in the subscription price.
×