When I was writing technical analysis reports for the customers of a major global bank, I received some interesting feedback from one of the bank's relationship managers. The customers liked the reports, she said, but it would be good if I made them less "technical." Making technical analysis reports less technical, hmmm. (To be fair, it is actually good advice because striking a balance between technical details and readability is an art.) Sometimes, though, an explanation of a concept cannot help but delve into some detail. So please bear with me on this one.
However, on average according to the work of Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel, the stock market has, on average over long time periods, returned 6.5% to 7% a year. Thus on average, there is a potential cost to being out of the market. This is a hurdle for any timing rule or process to overcome because on average if you’re out of the market and wrong then you’re potentially losing out of a material gain, and over a period of years those losses can add up. On the other hand, if you’re in the market you’ll see ups and downs, but historically returns to longer term investors willing to hold stocks for decades and wait out bad markets has been attractive.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) provides inside information about purchases and sales of futures contracts. The largest players in each market are required to disclose their positions to the CFTC on a daily basis and this report is released on a weekly basis. These traders are separated into Commercial Hedgers and Large Speculators. It is common knowledge that Large Speculators (Managed Money) are holding a significant informational edge over other traders as far as fundamental supply-and-demand statistics are concerned. So if you are trading commodities, forex or interest rates, you should not make a trade without looking what Managed Money is doing!
Retail inflation, released after market hours on Wednesday, fell below the Reserve Bank of India’s medium-term target in August, increasing the likelihood it will keep interest rates on hold in October after raising them at its past two meetings. Consumer prices rose 3.69% from a year earlier, down from July’s 4.17%, the Statistics Ministry said on Wednesday. August was the first month in 10 in which retail inflation was below the Reserve Bank of India’s medium-term target of 4%.
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The moving average is a line that plots the average price of a stock over a set period of time. A basic trading method is to buy when share prices rise above the long-term moving average and sell when the price falls below. In the paper, Technical Analysis with a Long Term Perspective: Trading Strategies and Market Timing Ability, some uncommon approaches were evaluated. One strategy was to analyze the trailing four years of market data to determine which moving average length proved the most effective for making investment decisions. Contrary to the usual calculation of moving averages using periods as short as 50 or 200 days, the moving averages in this paper were calculated over much longer periods of time.
While back-testing such techniques reveals profitable results, it is not a slam-dunk for future outcomes. Like any system, it takes a disciplined investor to follow the system and not be swayed by their own emotions when the data is not in agreement. Even for proven market timing strategies, there will always be investor error to consider, since computer-based models don’t take this into account. Moreover, the economy and market are ever-changing and may introduce new variables or alter old assumptions which can further complicate these strategies or affect their results.
Placing a sell/stop in the correct place works great for the 1 X leveraged etf, but when you are in a 3 X leveraged etf setting the sell/stop is a totally different game. Very rarely do I let the original sell/stop be hit before I will exit the trade as you have to give the stock some wiggle room when you first take a position. As more information becomes available you can start to make adjustments to your sell/stop mentally. A 3 X etf can get away from you in a heartbeat so one has to pay very close attention at all times.
Prices of Crude Oil has an effect on our markets specially on stocks of OIL companies , Paint companies and Aviation Companies since they import majority of the crude oil. Also India imports 80% of its crude oil . This makes up 30–50% of our import bill. SO if OPEC nations such as Nigeria , Saudi , Russia or US cut their production so that crude oil barrel prices spike , it will have a negative effect on India’s stock markets.
Fundamentals: Stock and bond markets have fundamental data points that drive price action. Price/earnings ratios, interest rates, credit ratings and debt/equity ratios are some of the financial metrics traders use to price stocks and bonds. Commodities, on the other hand, have few if any such reliable metrics. Price action is usually driven by short-, intermediate- or long-term market sentiment. As a result, analyzing commodities markets is much more difficult.
The primary reason behind this is the watershed change in global central banks’ monetary policies. For years central banks had been keeping rates near 0%, or below, and at the same time printing over a hundred billion dollars’ worth of fiat currencies each and every month to purchase bonds and stocks. That is all changing now. According to Capital Economics, fourteen major global central banks are either in the process right now, or have indicated that they be will next year, in the process of raising interest rates. At the same time, QE on a global net basis will plunge from $180 billion per month at its peak during 2017, to $0 by December…and will then go negative in 2019.
The Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) on Friday allowed domestic stock exchanges to extend equity derivatives trading till 11.55 pm, in a move aimed at attracting investors dealing in Indian products on overseas exchanges in Singapore and Dubai. The new timings will also help in better alignment with commodity markets — amid implementation of universal exchanges — which function till 11:55 pm.
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