Soybeans: Soybeans play a critical role in the global food ecosystem. The oil from the crop is used in many products including bread, crackers, cakes, cookies and salad dressings, while the meal from crushed soybeans serves as the main source of food for livestock. Soybean oil also serves as a feedstock in the production of biofuels. The growing need for food and fuel in emerging market economies could drive demand for soybeans. Three countries – the United States, Brazil and Argentina – account for 80% of global production.
We don’t have a central bank meeting scheduled for this week, but we get the minutes of the latest ECB one. Following the upbeat remarks of President Draghi at the conference following that meeting, it will be interesting to see whether other ECB officials are on the same page. In the US, we have the CPIs for September. We get inflation data from Norway and Sweden as well.
The economic principle of substitution creates a risk of investing in any commodity. As prices for a particular commodity climb, buyers will seek cheaper substitutions, if available. For example, cheaper metals such as aluminum often substitute for copper in many industrial applications. Similarly, farmers may substitute between corn, oats, wheat and barley as livestock feed based on price.
Earlier last year, Diwali Muhurat trading was conducted on 18 October 2017. A volatile trading session was seen in the stock markets with BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty closing in negative territory. The benchmark Sensex closed at 32,389.96, down 194.39 points or 0.6 per cent whereas the broader share indicator Nifty settled 64.3 points or 0.63 per cent lower at 10,146.55.
Robert Campbell has produced a unique work in the area of real estate books. While there are a lot of books that concentrate on purchasing in the right location and at the right price, this is the first one that points out the right location is of no help if the real estate market is in a downturn. "Timing the Real Estate Market" looks at the real estate market in a perspective similar to stocks, bonds and other investment vehicles. From this perspective there are cycles where prices rise and fall. The author examines not only the cycles of the past but the indicators that preceded each event. Using these "vital signs" he walks you through case studies on how to determine when to buy and when to sell. Finally, Robert Campbell discusses the ten cardinal rules of the system so that you can't go wrong. If you are planning to invest in real estate you owe it to yourself to purchase this book so you understand the trends and how they affect real estate ups and downs. After you have read this book and understand when the market is in an upswing, get one of the other books that discuss location and other important factors so you can get added return by buying the right piece of property.
At first I did not know what to expect from this book because the cover seemed very amateurish, but I found it interesting. The author describes how he gathered data for San Diego real estate market, and tested whether there were any correlations between different variables. He came up with five Vital Signs that provide valuable clues for anticipating trends. They are:
Two hallmarks characterize capitalist economies. Firstly, property is predominately in private hands. Consequently, goods and services are allocated via market mechanisms in which prices provide signals for businesses, workers, and consumers. Secondly, capitalist economies are highly capitalized. Indeed, the stocks of physical and human capital are relatively large in relation to the capitalist economies’ income flows.
The moving average is a line that plots the average price of a stock over a set period of time. A basic trading method is to buy when share prices rise above the long-term moving average and sell when the price falls below. In the paper, Technical Analysis with a Long Term Perspective: Trading Strategies and Market Timing Ability, some uncommon approaches were evaluated. One strategy was to analyze the trailing four years of market data to determine which moving average length proved the most effective for making investment decisions. Contrary to the usual calculation of moving averages using periods as short as 50 or 200 days, the moving averages in this paper were calculated over much longer periods of time.
However, this model has inherent problems since stocks carry more risk and are more volatile than government bonds. For example, future earnings forecasts may rise or fall in equity markets, which can positively or adversely affect your investment. What if the 12-month earnings predictions are dreadful as the economy is forecasted to go into a recession? The traditional Fed Model would not account for this future performance and therefore may inaccurately suggest to investors that stocks represent a better option than bonds.
Certainly, there are strong opinions on the efficacy of timing methods, perhaps driven by their promise of great rewards. While some assert that timing the market is possible and highly profitable, others claim that market timing is either impossible or not worth the risk. Nonetheless, it remains to be seen which of these market timing strategies will stand the test of time, if any, and what new ones will be developed. Much research and testing still needs to be done to legitimize market timing theories among academics and investors alike.
Lawrence Pines is a Princeton University graduate with more than 25 years of experience as an equity and foreign exchange options trader for multinational banks and proprietary trading groups. Mr. Pines has traded on the NYSE, CBOE and Pacific Stock Exchange. In 2011, Mr. Pines started his own consulting firm through which he advises law firms and investment professionals on issues related to trading, and derivatives. Lawrence has served as an expert witness in a number of high profile trials in US Federal and international courts.
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Extended Hours Trading allows investors to act quickly on information that comes out when markets are officially closed. In the past, only large institutional investors could participate in Extended Hours Trading. Thanks to the emergence of private trading systems in recent years, individual investors are now able to trade during extended hours as well.