In May, President Trump signed the rewrite of the 2010 Dodd-Frank law passed earlier by Congress with rare bipartisan support. The bill is the biggest rollback of bank rules since the financial crisis. According to the new law, lenders with less than $10 billion in assets will be exempted from the Volcker rule that bans proprietary trading. Moreover, the bill eases rules on all but the largest institutions, raising the threshold by which banks are considered systematically important and, thus, subject to tighter oversight from $50 to $250 billion in assets. The smallest banks between $50 and $100 billion were immediately freed of stricter regulations, while depositary institutions between $100 and $250 billion in assets will be exempt from them beginning in November 2019, although they could still be subjected to the Fed’s enhanced supervision in times of need. Last month, the Fed just unveiled a proposal for the implementation of several major provisions of the new bill.
For example, the greatest loss for investors according to Dalbar data over the past 30 years came in October 2008. This was a volatile month; the S&P 500 started above 1,100 but at times closed in the 800s, representing a decline of 27% within a single month. Only the S&P 500 then rebounded somewhat and finished the month 14% off the lows. Clearly, October 2008 was a roller coaster of a month and relatively unusual in market history - we saw greater swings in October 2008 than are often seen over a whole year.
Crude Oil: This commodity has the largest impact on the global economy. Not only is crude oil used in a variety of forms of transportation including cars, trains, jets and ships, it is also used in the production of plastics, synthetic textiles (acrylic, nylon, spandex and polyester), fertilizers, computers, cosmetics and more. If you take into account the input cost of transportation, crude oil plays a role in the production of virtually every commodity.
Fast-growing countries such as India and China are accumulating vast amounts of wealth as their economies grow. As a result, they have a growing need for a variety of basic goods and raw materials such as crops and livestock to feed their people, metals to build the infrastructure in their cities and energy to fuel their factories, homes and farms. Demand from emerging markets has a huge impact on commodity prices. Signs of economic slowdown in these countries can depress prices, while surging economic growth can cause commodity prices to rise.
Given the sheer variety of cryptocurrencies you can’t define all of them as securities or all of them as currencies. Instead a much better analogue for cryptocurrencies are real-world commodities, indeed Bitcoin is often referred to as “digital gold” and many cryptocurrencies are “mined” by computers. A commodity is normally free from outside control, barring regulations, and their value is determined by market factors.
Robert Campbell has produced a unique work in the area of real estate books. While there are a lot of books that concentrate on purchasing in the right location and at the right price, this is the first one that points out the right location is of no help if the real estate market is in a downturn. "Timing the Real Estate Market" looks at the real estate market in a perspective similar to stocks, bonds and other investment vehicles. From this perspective there are cycles where prices rise and fall. The author examines not only the cycles of the past but the indicators that preceded each event. Using these "vital signs" he walks you through case studies on how to determine when to buy and when to sell. Finally, Robert Campbell discusses the ten cardinal rules of the system so that you can't go wrong. If you are planning to invest in real estate you owe it to yourself to purchase this book so you understand the trends and how they affect real estate ups and downs. After you have read this book and understand when the market is in an upswing, get one of the other books that discuss location and other important factors so you can get added return by buying the right piece of property.
Since there are a glut of fundamental and technical indicators available – many of which conflict – which do you follow? In other words, how do you react when the employment rate is dropping, but stocks rise to new highs on increased earnings? Should you buy when stocks are well below historical price-to-earnings ratios despite high volume selling? For every report and survey suggesting one direction, there is usually a contradicting indicator that suggests the opposite.
What separates commodities from other types of goods is that they are standardized and interchangeable with other goods of the same type. These features make commodities fungible. This means that two equivalent units of the same commodity should have mostly uniform prices any place in the world (* excluding local factors such as the cost of transportation and taxes).
Mr. Bear however, has been assigned a totally different mission. When it’s his turn he has been tasked to use those very same investors to power the trend to un-dreamed of lows. This is a mission even more difficult than Mr. Bull’s because counter to Mr. Bull it’s Mr. Bear’s duty to actually keep those investors in the market despite it falling over time, which is no easy task. This is because if these investors just gave up and left the market it would simply stop going down. His mission requires a particularly high level of deviance to pull off. It’s why Mr. Market retains a particularly fond place in his heart for Mr. Bear, since Mr. Market has a diabolical nature and like the Grand Inquisitor, he has no problem drawing blood.
A few of these holidays also lead to early closes on additional days. For example, on the Friday after Thanksgiving Day, the stock market closes after 1:00 p.m. ET. If Christmas Eve or the day before Independence Day fall on a weekday, those days are also subject to early closes, with the market again closing at 1:00 p.m. If Independence Day is a Saturday, then Friday, July 3, is still recognized as a holiday and the exchanges are closed.
There is much debate on market efficiency i.e. how well and how fast the markets incorporate information about future profits. It is of note that on certain occasions the market can appear relatively random. One example is the October 1987 market crash (Black Monday) where the international stock markets, including the US, fell 20% or more in a single day. Subsequent analysis by Robert Shiller, the Nobel Prize winning economist, based on surveying investors suggested that the decline was due to investor psychology and did not have an obvious external cause. If true, this creates a substantial challenge for market timing because such ephemeral causes can be extremely hard to predict and forecast. It is one thing to forecast and predict something that is rational, but quite another to predict something that may, at times, hinge on the whims of human psychology.
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