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No. Even with poor timing, Jill turned her $100,000 in contributions to $216,576 in stocks by the time Joaquin invests his first $10,000. Her head start more than offsets Joaquin’s perfect timing and greater total contributions. In June 2018, she has just over $5 million. Joaquin has less than half that, around $2.1 million. Jill’s compound time-in-the-market growth trounced Joaquin’s perfect timing.
Earlier last year, Diwali Muhurat trading was conducted on 18 October 2017. A volatile trading session was seen in the stock markets with BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty closing in negative territory. The benchmark Sensex closed at 32,389.96, down 194.39 points or 0.6 per cent whereas the broader share indicator Nifty settled 64.3 points or 0.63 per cent lower at 10,146.55.

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** Each market will close early at 1:00 p.m. (1:15 p.m. for eligible options) on Friday, November 23, 2018, Friday, November 29, 2019, and Friday, November 27, 2020 (the day after Thanksgiving). Crossing Session orders will be accepted beginning at 1:00 p.m. for continuous executions until 1:30 p.m. on these dates, and NYSE American Equities, NYSE Arca Equities, and NYSE National late trading sessions will close at 5:00 pm. All times are Eastern Time.

Retail inflation, released after market hours on Wednesday, fell below the Reserve Bank of India’s medium-term target in August, increasing the likelihood it will keep interest rates on hold in October after raising them at its past two meetings. Consumer prices rose 3.69% from a year earlier, down from July’s 4.17%, the Statistics Ministry said on Wednesday. August was the first month in 10 in which retail inflation was below the Reserve Bank of India’s medium-term target of 4%.
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So the market may be less driven by predictable patterns than our brains may lead us to believe. The track record of investors actually timing the market has been poor, perhaps due to emotions clouding judgement, and some past events such as the October 1987 market crash appear extremely hard to forecast because the causes of them are unclear, or at least still debated, even decades after the event. Then there are structural factors against market timing too in terms of both taxes, direct costs and the opportunity cost of being out of a market that has historically risen in value over time. To say nothing of the cost of your time. All of this is not to say that timing is impossible, but the odds appear in favor of the buy and hold investor rather than the market timer. Generally, if you have money to invest for the long term, it seems putting it to work quickly beats waiting to try and find the perfect moment to enter the market.

Especially the cap-weighted S&P 500 is extremely concentrated and therefore tremendously flawed. Hence, holdings with higher market capitalizations have a greater impact on the value of the index than do companies with smaller market caps. For instance, the top 50 holdings of the index (10 %) account for approximately more than 50 % of its weight. Consequently, the price information causes a wrong perception of the real trend, especially in times when those heavy weighted stocks move in the opposite direction compared to the broad market. In such a situation, a major trend reversal is imminent and forces us to become a contrarian investor rather than being a trend follower. By analyzing the full holdings of the S&P 500 on an aggregate basis, this market inefficiency gives us the competitive edge to be ahead of the crowd!


On Tuesday, during the Asian morning, we get Australia’s NAB business survey for September. Although this is usually not a market mover, given the RBA’s emphasis on wage growth, we will take a close look at the Labour Costs sub-index. At its last two meetings, the Bank reiterated that wage growth remains low, but removed the part saying that this is likely to continue. Instead, officials noted that it has picked up a little and that further lift is expected. The NAB Labour Costs index accelerated to +1.3% qoq in the three months to August, from 0.9% in the three months to July and it would be interesting to see whether this improvement will continue as the RBA has suggested.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) provides inside information about purchases and sales of futures contracts. The largest players in each market are required to disclose their positions to the CFTC on a daily basis and this report is released on a weekly basis. These traders are separated into Commercial Hedgers and Large Speculators. It is common knowledge that Large Speculators (Managed Money) are holding a significant informational edge over other traders as far as fundamental supply-and-demand statistics are concerned. So if you are trading commodities, forex or interest rates, you should not make a trade without looking what Managed Money is doing!
If you pay 28% tax on your marginal income, then you also generally pay that on short-term capital gains too, but under the current tax code, long-term capital gains are taxed at 15%. That’s important, and works out to be a significant difference, because though it may seem counter-intuitive, waiting to sell a stock with a gain to achieve a potentially better tax outcome has the potential to improve your return.
Best example can be given of Trump who said not to hire overseas workers and to cut import to a minimum. SO naturally IT companies fell a lot , pharma and manufacturing too fell a lot as some companies have their manufacturing units and human resources in US and such statements translate into uncertainty for the business which is depicted by panic selling of investors in such stocks.
Nonetheless, if there are real patterns to be found whether by looking at charts or other analysis, let’s look at how good investors actually are at finding them and timing the market. Dalbar, a financial market research firm, examine returns investors received relative to the market. They find over the past 20 years, investors in equity funds have lagged the S&P 500 benchmark by an average of 4.66% per year, on average. Part of this outcome is due to poor timing decisions according to Dalbar's analysis.
I realize it's actually kind of dumb for me to tell others how well this newsletter works, because if people learn that markets can indeed be timed, then the markets eventually become efficient, and that methodology stops working. But I think the vast majority of people still think market timing is a hoax, so there's little risk in the markets ever becoming efficient. And I write this review because I'd like to do my part to help drive some business to Campbell, since he helped me make a little money. Thanks, Bob!
Short Interest is the number of shares currently borrowed by short sellers for sale, but not yet returned to the owner (lender). Every short seller anticipates a declining stock market. A profit is made if the stock is bought back at a lower price than when it was sold short. When a large amount of short selling activity is occurring, market participants obviously expect prices to head lower. Short sellers are potential buyers sooner or later and represent a lot of buying power when they have to scramble for cover in a sudden market turn.
There have also been on-and-off concerns about rising interest rates. Though we're still well below the historic average for the federal funds target rate, the Federal Reserve is very clearly in a monetary tightening mode. As rates rise, lending becomes more expensive, putting a cap on corporate growth potential and exposing certain companies valued at high premiums.

The major gold miners’ stocks remain mired in universal bearishness, largely left for dead.  They are just wrapping up their third-quarter earnings season, which proved challenging.  Lower gold prices cut deeply into cash flows and profits, and production-growth struggles persisted.  But these elite companies did hold the line on costs, portending soaring earnings as gold recovers.  Their absurdly-cheap stock prices aren’t justified.
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Two hallmarks characterize capitalist economies. Firstly, property is predominately in private hands. Consequently, goods and services are allocated via market mechanisms in which prices provide signals for businesses, workers, and consumers. Secondly, capitalist economies are highly capitalized. Indeed, the stocks of physical and human capital are relatively large in relation to the capitalist economies’ income flows.

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