What separates commodities from other types of goods is that they are standardized and interchangeable with other goods of the same type. These features make commodities fungible. This means that two equivalent units of the same commodity should have mostly uniform prices any place in the world (* excluding local factors such as the cost of transportation and taxes).
For example, if you spend $10,000 on stock in company A in a taxable account and it rises $5,000 within 6 months, then selling Company A immediately would incur a 28% tax on the $5,000 gain or $1,400 of tax. But if you waited until you’d held the stock for a year and moved into long term capital gains territory, then the tax is $750 because it’s taxed at the lower rate of 15%. Hence your tax cost falls materially by waiting to hold an investment for a year assuming the price of the stock stays the same. In this theoretical example you save $650, or 13%, of your paper profits.
Stock Market Timing,Volume 2 analyzes and gives weighted values (scores) to each long-term planetary cycle, its phases (aspects), and their correlation to 50-week or greater cycles in the U.S. stock market -- going all the way back to the beginning in 1789! Which planetary cycles correlate with the 18-year and greater stock market cycles (and hence trends)? Which correlate more with the four-year cycles? Which correlate with long-term cycle crests, and which to long-term cycle troughs? And what is the correlation to the three long-term Saturn Planetary pair cycles that just started June 25, 1998 and last through May, 2000?
Placing a sell/stop in the correct place works great for the 1 X leveraged etf, but when you are in a 3 X leveraged etf setting the sell/stop is a totally different game. Very rarely do I let the original sell/stop be hit before I will exit the trade as you have to give the stock some wiggle room when you first take a position. As more information becomes available you can start to make adjustments to your sell/stop mentally. A 3 X etf can get away from you in a heartbeat so one has to pay very close attention at all times.
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FINANCIAL MARKETS OVERVIEW FOR MONDAY: (11/19) The week before Thanksgiving is usually frustrating for traders. By late Monday, traders are disappearing and markets stay in useless ranges with pattern waiting to be completed. Dips on stocks will be bought for a Thanksgiving rally only to give it back early next week. Metals and crude look higher this week even if we have a Monday/Tuesday pullback here. T-notes could hold up an extra week but minimum target is close.
At first I did not know what to expect from this book because the cover seemed very amateurish, but I found it interesting. The author describes how he gathered data for San Diego real estate market, and tested whether there were any correlations between different variables. He came up with five Vital Signs that provide valuable clues for anticipating trends. They are:
Ed Yardeni, who was the Chief Investment Strategist for Oak Associates as well as a professor and an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank, developed the FED model. This model compares bond rates to equity premiums. For example, if the 10-year Treasury note has a higher earnings yield than the stock market (as calculated based on the trailing 12 months), you should buy bonds. If, on the other hand, the earnings yield of the market is above that of bonds, you should buy equities.
In the 1800s, the burgeoning grain trade led to the establishment of commodities forward contract markets in the United States. Farmers in the Midwest would bring their crops to Chicago for storage prior to shipment to the East Coast. However, during storage, the prices for these grains might change for a variety of reasons. The quality of the stored item could deteriorate, for example, or demand for the item could increase or decrease.